Is Kamala Harris ‘Underwater’ in Michigan? What Polls Say

Kamala Harris is marginally ahead of Donald Trump in Michigan, polls show, following reported concerns that the vice president is “underwater” in the state.
Michigan Representative Elissa Slotkin, who is running for a Senate seat, is said to have warned donors about internal polling from her campaign during a virtual fundraiser on September 25, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.
“I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan,” Slotkin reportedly said. “We have her underwater in our polling.” The recording has not been seen or independently verified by Newsweek.
Newsweek has contacted the Slotkin and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Michigan is one of the three so-called “blue wall” battleground states which are vital to Harris’ 2024 campaign. If the vice president just wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she will reach 270 Electoral College votes to win the election, barring any shock results elsewhere.
Harris would also need to win the one Electoral College vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District in this scenario. Polls suggest she is on course to do so.
Trump could win the election by beating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, and by flipping Michigan.
It is unclear if Slotkin was exaggerating her concerns about Harris’ poll numbers as part of a fundraising tactic, which is common practice.
The battleground state of Michigan is still too close to call with just over a month to go until November’s election.
As of September 29, FiveThirtyEight has Harris with a national average lead over Trump in Michigan of 1.9 points (48.1 percent to 46.2).
RealClearPolitics’ polling average also gives Harris a slight lead in Michigan of 1.4 points (48.9 percent to 47.5).
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 688 likely voters in Michigan showed that Harris has a 1-point lead over Trump (48 percent to 47). The poll was conducted between September 21-26. The results was within the margin of error of around plus or minus 4 percentage points.
An AtlasIntel survey of 918 likely voters in Michigan had Trump ahead by 50.6 percent to 47.2. The poll was conducted between September 20 and 25 with a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey of 800 likely Michigan voters, released on September 28, showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump (50 percent to 47), just within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll also had Harris leading Trump in Michigan by 3 points (48 percent to 45).
The poll of 500 likely voters was taken between September 16 and 19. The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.